Suzuka 2010 preview

Suzuka is in every driver’s top three favourite tracks. The difference here compared to Spa, where Eau Rouge is now easily flat-out, is that at Suzuka they have only been able to tickle the run-off zones. So in that first sector of the lap, there’s an immense driving challenge ¬ uphill, downhill, medium-speed into high-speed corners ¬ but a big penalty for getting it wrong. At 130R, the run-off is far more extensive since the day Allan McNish rode over the barrier in his Toyota. But the rest of the track is as narrow and challenging as ever, and it’s always a very telling race in terms of the relative performance of the teams.
 
RED BULL’S PLAYGROUND
Suzuka is a track that truly rewards downforce, so Red Bull is definitely in its favoured hunting ground, especially in the first and second sectors. But the long last sector should favour McLaren and Ferrari ¬ from Spoon, through 130R and on to the chicane.
It’s going to be fascinating to evaluate the difference in sector performance between the cars. Will Red Bull’s early strength be enough over the second half of the lap?
Mark Webber is the bookies’ favourite for the title; he isn’t leading this championship by accident. His strategy must now be that finishing the races is more important than winning them. He can afford to be cautious in a 50-50 scenario.
What we saw in Singapore was a reverse of that: with Lewis Hamilton on his outside Mark went for it like the racer he is. He got away with that extremely lightly.
He has to take note of that. Finishing a place behind Lewis would still have been a great result. Not finishing would have been silly. After a year of hard fighting, Mark’s next four races are all about consolidating what he’s already got.
 
ALONSO ON A ROLL
Ferrari and Fernando Alonso have outscored everyone in the last two races, so they have to feel confident going into this weekend. Ferrari’s Achilles heel is its lack of reserve engines, and that must compromise its Friday running. Suzuka is a track where you want to practice your qualifying run before you get to Saturday afternoon, and that means running your engine at full load.
It was hard to take Fernando seriously when he made those mid-season comments about challenging for the title when he appeared to be well out of it, but the manner in which Ferrari knuckled down and developed the car has been remarkable. Now it’s all to play for.
 
THE MUST-WIN TRIO
Sebastien Vettel was on full attack in Singapore, hounding Alonso to the finish, and I don’t expect any deviation in his strategy. He’ll be gunning for pole and victory.
For Lewis, he’s had two worst-case scenario rounds. He’s a great racer, we love that about him, but he was a big influence at Monza and Singapore in the car not finishing. It did look like McLaren had slipped back a little in Singapore, so maybe it’s his fighting spirit that will get him back into the fight.
In Jenson Button’s case, if you take away those good decisions to win his two races, and his superb Monza run, there’s been a lack of any really strong results. He needs another big race to bring himself back into it.
Weather could play a part in Japan, and that’s when he excels.
 
SOLVING SCHUEY’S STRUGGLES
I heard that my BBC colleague Eddie Jordan made a typically sweeping statement that he’d sack Michael Schumacher if he was his team boss. Michael is obviously a big part of Mercedes’s strategy, but the car just hasn’t delivered.
I think a lot hinges on next year’s design. If they pull out a Brawn BGP001-style car again, then Michael could be the darling of F1 again. At the moment it’s not going well, he’s being consistently out-performed by Nico Rosberg, and he’s getting involved in the sort of accidents you get at the back of the grid.
I don’t think he’s regretting the comeback, but if he’s still in the same situation come race one next year, then he’ll struggle to maintain his enthusiasm for it.